Setting aside the polls for now (though something clearly went very badly wrong when YouGov’s non-exit poll asking people how they had voted had us on 284 seats), why, when the Conservatives were ahead on the economy, ahead on leadership and ahead on best Prime Minister, was it taken so much for granted that those polls were indeed correct and we were heading for at best a non-win, at worst a loss?
I think there are many reasons to be cheerful about this new government, despite its small majority and big plans. The last ten days or so of the campaign were rather more in the tone that I would have wanted – optimistic, supportive, confident, wide-reaching. The priorities set by David Cameron on the steps of No10 on Friday morning, and at the opening of the first Cabinet meeting, are absolutely right. The focus on ensuring that the benefits of economic growth reach across the country, that we face outwards, that we continue to reform education, welfare, the police, and the NHS are the only way that this government will win re-election in 2020.
However this happens fairly often – there’s a great set-piece conference speech, or a big national moment, that remains firmly in that centrist, moderate, One Nation vein, and then we go back to only criticising Labour for having un-costed plans, or for doing something the unions want when in fact a far better argument – as for example, on parental leave, or on tuition fees – is that we have introduced an even better policy that is more in tune with what people actually need and want to live successful lives, supported where needed but encouraged to make the most of what’s there.
There’s going to be much discussion of shy Tories, of lazy Labour, of turnout, of targeting, of sampling and weighting and methodology. Lord Ashcroft gave a very interesting presentation on Monday in which one of the most useful things he said was, “among voters for whom the single biggest driver was the parties’ motives and values, Labour pipped it. In other words, “competence voters” went with the Tories and “values voters”, albeit by a smaller margin, went with Labour. For me, this prompts the thought: why can’t we have both?”
He is completely right.
We have a huge opportunity to, once and for all, eradicate the (clearly wrong but nonetheless prevalent) assumption that we don’t care about parts of our country, geographically or demographically. The number of seats with Ukip in second place is – yes, currently – a bigger problem for Labour than for us, but how depressing that that number of people feel so alienated and so abandoned that they want to vote Ukip instead of voting Conservative, a party which has, in government with the Lib Dems, transformed education and welfare for millions, and set us on the path to full employment and a brighter, more secure future. It comes back to the Matthew Parris argument about Cambridge and Clacton again – and the answer is manifestly NOT to abandon one in favour of the other but to work to bridge the gap.
One of the hallmarks of being a Conservative is that, largely, we don’t feel the need to shout about it or make it our defining feature. It’s interesting to see just how many people voted Conservative despite not telling any one they were going to. I think that’s partly just the way we are, but I also think that it has a lot to do with other people’s perceptions of us – remember how, as soon as Nicola Sturgeon would say “They’re Tories!” there would be a general murmur of agreement as if that was enough to damn us all immediately because clearly our motivations and values are wrong.
One of the very greatest achievements of David Cameron is that he is and is seen as a good Prime Minister (he’s often less great as leader of the Conservative Party, but really I’d rather that way round if necessary). Making it OK to support a party because of their leader’s instincts is a useful thing; even better if that means that people’s perceptions of that party are transformed as a result. We need to understand that the Cameron competence, niceness, optimism is, I think, why there are shy Tories, and use the next five years to ensure that in 2020 people no longer feel shy about being a Conservative.
